Jonathan Wilson
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Ottmar Hitzfeld is unlikely to spring any tactical surprises but Fabio Capello's side must be ready for a war of attrition
Switzerland beat Spain this summer and set a record for the longest spell without conceding a goal in World Cup finals matches, 559 minutes stretching back to 1994, but while that had the rest of the world grudgingly nodding in approval at the solidity of their defence, in Switzerland there was frustration at flaws at the other end of the pitch. After all, it does not really matter if you beat the side who go on to be world champions if you then cannot score the goals required against Honduras to progress.
A 1-0 win in a friendly against Austria last month took Switzerland's goal tally to four in nine games and led their manager, Ottmar Hitzfeld, to speak of the need to find "a new philosophy" in the build-up to Friday's friendly against Australia. They drew 0-0 and Alexander Frei, the country's record scorer, was booed by the home fans. Frei has scored five times in his last two games for FC Basel but, after missing a penalty on Friday, it is 363 days since he, or any Swiss forward, scored for their country.
The ethnic make-up of the Switzerland side is changing rapidly, as the children of immigrants – particularly from the former Yugoslavia and Turkey – become available, but the ethos of the national side seems barely to have changed since Karl Rappan, himself an immigrant from Austria, developed catenaccio there in the late 1930s, dropping a midfielder behind his defensive line to compensate for his amateur players' relative lack of fitness when they faced professional teams from elsewhere in Europe.
With Switzerland, Hitzfeld had been a resolute 4-4-2 man with the only issue being who should partner Frei. Blaise Nkufo was the preferred choice in the first two World Cup games, the 1-0 win over Spain and the 1-0 defeat by Chile, which gave the front pair a combined age of 65. Eren Derdiyok, the mobile and combative 22-year-old Bayer Leverkusen striker who scored against England in Fabio Capello's first game in charge, was given an opportunity in that final game against Honduras but missed a host of chances.
Frei has made clear his preference for operating as an out-and-out striker but on Friday he played in the hole behind Derdiyok and Albert Bunjaku. It was not a great success and an out-of-sorts Derdiyok was withdrawn at half-time for the Basel wing-back-***-winger Xherdan Shaqiri, as Switzerland switched back to an orthodox 4-4-2.
It seems probable that Hitzfeld will revert to what he knows best tomorrow. "Total attacking to end the goal drought wouldn't be the right thing," he said, hinting that his side will settle for the system that thwarted Spain – two banks of four sitting deep to frustrate England, with Frei linking to a front man, either Derdiyok or Bunjaku. "If you give England room then they're extremely dangerous. I think they've learned from their mistakes during the World Cup when they suffered counterattacks. We always go into a game to win. We have to find the right mix between the Spain game, when we defended very well, and switching swiftly into attack."
For England, the problem will at least be familiar; deep-lying banks of four have long been the default for Premier League teams looking to frustrate opponents. That is bad news for Wayne Rooney who, on top of everything else, is likely to have two holding midfielders – probably Gökhan Inler and Pirmin Schwegler – sitting in front of the back four in the space he exploited so well against Bulgaria.
Jermain Defoe's pace, similarly, is likely to be less of an issue if Switzerland sit deep and make England try to pass their way through them (and if Spain struggled to do that, then what hope do England have?).
This is a game in which England could have done with Peter Crouch to offer the sort of aerial threat that would make Switzerland wary of dropping too deep. Although Rooney showed on Friday that he is probably at his most useful for his country operating behind a front man, rather than as the principal striker as he is for Manchester United, it may be his aerial ability that proves of most use tomorrow.
With both sides playing a similar 4-4-2, it is unlikely to be anything other than an attritional battle, a war of patience. That may draw yet more criticism for Capello, but a goalless draw would be a perfectly decent result for England against such parsimonious opposition.
Jonathan Wilson
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Either way, it's going to be interesting.