My starting GK in a save in Mexico is a 19-year old newgen from Bolivia. Picked him on a free (amateur club) and he's developed well. 5 star potential but don't know that he'll ever be truly world class. Still, developing well. Bolivia isn't exactly a minnow but they are one of the smallest in South America.
Managing in Mexico, I troll the US for talent and often find decent Canadians. Have a Costa Rican defender in this save but his personality is poor and he's refusing to be mentored, so he won't develop all that well.
I've seen plenty of newgens of quality from tiny nations in Europe but its very random. Depends on each save, because factors like DB size, active nations, etc, come into play. For some REALLY tiny nations, I've seen newgens in nations like France and The Netherlands come thru with some pretty obscure secondary nationalities, and on rare occasion, one of them will choose to represent the second nation.