2010-11 Premier league table with No Ref errors.

[SwiftRecherche]

It's not 50% but there's still a chance he will not score.

I usually lurk, but this one had me interested. How is it not 50% he will not score?

Sure you either score or don't, right? 50/50. Taking in goalkeepers skill, penalty takers skill, so on, so forth. Or am I missing something?

 

[Joel`]

I usually lurk, but this one had me interested. How is it not 50% he will not score?

Sure you either score or don't, right? 50/50. Taking in goalkeepers skill, penalty takers skill, so on, so forth. Or am I missing something?

'keeper can only dive one specific way, there's roughly 6 equal spots a penalty taker can hit (There's more, but for the sake of simplicity..) Top left, bottom left, top centre etc. so there's a 1/6 chance of the 'keeper saving it. Then add on the probability the shooter misses completely, then reduce all of that by penalty takers skill. By your logic, 1 in 2 free kicks should go in and 1 in 2 shots on open goal should miss.

 

[mark 19 times]

this is stupid. i will use the example of neville not getting sent off at WBA. how do you know how the game would have mapped out if neville got sent off?

 

[prow07]

According to wikipedia (i know it's not the most reliable of things, but it's a handy statistic), a German professor studied penalty kicks in the Bundesliga for 16 years, and calculated that 76% of penalty kicks were scored. Also, there were 78 penalty kicks taken during FA Premier League 2005-06 season, 57 resulted in a goal, meaning almost 30% of the penalties were unsuccessful (70% were), so if you compare the 2 leagues, you're talking roughly 70-80% of kicks are scored... meaning 1/5 of penalties are missed... that seems a pretty accurate statistic to me.