OhhhRickieLambert
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Bringing Moneyball To Ashton Gate
View attachment 270920
The Setup
So as most of you will know Moneyball is a theory that was born in Major League Baseball, based on Sabermetrics pioneered by Bill James to choose players by statistical analysis to get a competitive team to get results on a tight budget.
It has been transferred to football by Kuper and Szymanski in Soccernomics and Anderson and Sally in The Number's Game. I plan on bringing Moneyball to Bristol and will be using some of the rules mentioned in these two books to help create a stable financial base from which to succeed. The rules are as follows:
1. Net wage spend is more important than net transfer spend (pp. 14-21)View attachment 270920
The Setup
So as most of you will know Moneyball is a theory that was born in Major League Baseball, based on Sabermetrics pioneered by Bill James to choose players by statistical analysis to get a competitive team to get results on a tight budget.
It has been transferred to football by Kuper and Szymanski in Soccernomics and Anderson and Sally in The Number's Game. I plan on bringing Moneyball to Bristol and will be using some of the rules mentioned in these two books to help create a stable financial base from which to succeed. The rules are as follows:
2. Don’t needlessly splash out on new players or sell old ones when you take over a club – the New Manager Syndrome (pp. 21-22)
3. Don’t buy players who impressed at international tournaments: they’re likely to be overvalued and past performance is no indication of future performance, especially when they’re playing with a different team (pp. 22-24) – there are different incentives and a different tactical set-up at tournaments, and it’s a super small sample size.
4. Some nationalities are overrated, like Holland, Brazil, and England (pp. 24-25)
5. Sell your players at the right time: when they’re around 30 years old, goalkeepers aside (p. 29)
6. Use the wisdom of crowds: ask all your scouts and a Director of Football if you have one (pp. 43-44)
7. Buy players in their early twenties, which avoids the problems with not developing properly, and means previous statistics have greater value (pp. 45-47)
8. Centre-forwards cost more than they should (p. 47)
9. Sell any player if a club offers more than they are worth and try to replace them before they are sold (pp. 48-49)
10. Don’t buy players if you don’t need to: develop a youth network and try to develop your own players (pp. 49-51)*
The Number's Game also gave me the theory that the best way to improve a side is by replacing your weak links and not re-strengthening your already strong areas. Bristol City were an ideal choice for me as they had a decent stadium, no debts, a fairly sound squad that wouldn't need an immediate overhaul to be competitive and a projected finish of 3rd.
The Background
Founded in 1897, Bristol City is based in the south west of the city of Bristol and play their home games at Ashton Gate which holds 14,660 people. They have okay finances and are worth an estimated ?10M. Their training and youth facilities are rated as good, while they have adequate junior coaching and average youth recruitment. Trophy wise they have won the Championship once, the JPT twice, the English Third Division South three times, the English Western League Premier Division eight times, the Anglo-Scottish Cup once and the Welsh Cup once.
The Plan
After finishing 12th in the 13/14 season my aim is to at least make the playoffs while keeping the club financially strong. That means staying within the allowed budgets set by the Chairman. As mentioned above I will accept any offers for players that are above their valuation and look for signings that are under valued or even free and are of the right age for future resale. The development of a youth network is high on my list of priorities but will have to take a back seat until we are financially stable as a club which will hopefully be our second season in the Premier League. My hope is that we make it to the Premier League in my fourth season.
I will play a 4-2-3-1 formation with wide inside forwards and an advanced playmaker in behind a complete forward. At this lower level it is more important to have an attacking team that will score lots of goals as defensive mistakes are at a high level and trying to play a defensively sound formation and eke out 1-0 wins is a fools errand. I'm willing to concede a couple of goals if it means we're scoring 4 or 5.
View attachment 270921
Next up will be my first season at the helm of Bristol City.
Rules taken from Alex Stewart's feature on thesetpieces.com
The Background
Founded in 1897, Bristol City is based in the south west of the city of Bristol and play their home games at Ashton Gate which holds 14,660 people. They have okay finances and are worth an estimated ?10M. Their training and youth facilities are rated as good, while they have adequate junior coaching and average youth recruitment. Trophy wise they have won the Championship once, the JPT twice, the English Third Division South three times, the English Western League Premier Division eight times, the Anglo-Scottish Cup once and the Welsh Cup once.
The Plan
After finishing 12th in the 13/14 season my aim is to at least make the playoffs while keeping the club financially strong. That means staying within the allowed budgets set by the Chairman. As mentioned above I will accept any offers for players that are above their valuation and look for signings that are under valued or even free and are of the right age for future resale. The development of a youth network is high on my list of priorities but will have to take a back seat until we are financially stable as a club which will hopefully be our second season in the Premier League. My hope is that we make it to the Premier League in my fourth season.
I will play a 4-2-3-1 formation with wide inside forwards and an advanced playmaker in behind a complete forward. At this lower level it is more important to have an attacking team that will score lots of goals as defensive mistakes are at a high level and trying to play a defensively sound formation and eke out 1-0 wins is a fools errand. I'm willing to concede a couple of goals if it means we're scoring 4 or 5.
View attachment 270921
Next up will be my first season at the helm of Bristol City.
Rules taken from Alex Stewart's feature on thesetpieces.com