How random is this game can be?

[Mr Langvatn]

It's about as accurate as instant result they are essentially the same function with a diff name for diff modes under the hood. Either in a full mode skin (that it isn't adapt or built for) is about 80%+ accuracy as playing

Just wanted to let people know that this is misinformation See Will1981's thread about simulate match/instant result. I know from my own experience as well, from fm13, fm14, fm15 and fm16, that when using instant result, the result is much more random than when using simulate match. Simulate match is the only reliable option for tactic testing. Playing the matches yourself will actually give you LOWER accuracy, due to the fact that noone in their right mind would test 200 matches for each tactic by playing each match themselves. With simulate match, these numbers are reachable, especially with a kind of macro.

 

[Mr Langvatn]

Ok but why some tactics consistenty performs good on all test leagues? Eg Knap midsommer 442?

Anyway, I didn't promised variation would be 1.5% always. I'm pretty sure points may vary, the randomness will still be there. How would you judge the effectiveness of a tactic,just by points and GD? What about trying to translate team stats into measureable predictions of how many points you could probably achieve? You may not agree with me but some things like tackling harder -> more yellow cards is very consistent with having more points, much more than having more possession or passes completed for example.

That's the focus I think it's worth having. One random mistake from a defender can turn your win into Draw. I plan to add all test seasons I did to the sprradsheet I have to feed the system and try to predict a more reliable points x stats correlation. Minimizing those mistake/random factors, weighting them with the points ranking. The problem is that one season input take around an hour of active typing and checking and only me doing it makes it slow.

I think I can also help with this question The reason some tactics are more consistent than others in testing leagues, is that tactics are affected by randomness in different ways. A high-scoring, high-conceding tactic is definitely more affected by randomness than a tactic which is lower scoring and lower conceding. This means that in all tactic tests, if you run two equally good tactics through the test 20 times each, it is quite certain that the "most random one" of the two tactics will be on top of the testing table. But, it would also be the one which got the worst result in all 20 testruns.

However, the only way to deal with such issues is to increase the number of matches tested, to minimum around 200. The problem is of course that simulating 200 matches is very time consuming

 

[wkdsoul]

Just wanted to let people know that this is misinformation See Will1981's thread about simulate match/instant result. I know from my own experience as well, from fm13, fm14, fm15 and fm16, that when using instant result, the result is much more random than when using simulate match. Simulate match is the only reliable option for tactic testing. Playing the matches yourself will actually give you LOWER accuracy, due to the fact that noone in their right mind would test 200 matches for each tactic by playing each match themselves. With simulate match, these numbers are reachable, especially with a kind of macro.

[FM16][MOD][RELEASED]Instant Match Skins

When you've hacked in Instant Result into a skin, this is just the same as "Simulate Match", only difference being you won't be able to do Match Plans I believe (I don't use these skins).


There is no option to just Skip Match (ie. What Tablet calls Instant Result), unless you were to just holiday the game.

I just went from what the makers told me. At least you testers are finally agreeing on something though.