can anyone actually explain how a player in an attacking position has his stats offset against a goalie he is against??
for example, your striker runs through from halfway and is one on one with the goalie and no defenders close. he has finishing, composure and decision stats all of 15 and the goalie has reflexes, one on one and rushing out stats all of 15, how do these effect the outcome?? how is the ratio of success for the goalie and player calculated??
First of all, whatever the calculation is, it will never be a 100% for either side.
1 - I figure there would be a number of circumstance data: distance striker-goalkeeper, distance striker-goal, distance striker-closer defenders, angle from striker to goal line, importance of match, scoreline.
2 - Goalkeeper data: One on ones (direct stat), reflexes (for when shot happens), aggression (to close down and reduce angle or keep back), rushing out (combined with the previous), determination (I'm going to save this!!), positioning (to be where the striker will have the less angle), pace, acceleration (both to close down and achieve best positioning in time), agility (to meet any change of direction fast), aerial ability (against lobs), bravery (dare to get the ball at his feet or tackle it off), composure (to keep calm), concentration (specially if he's seen little job, to stay sharp), anticipation? (to make the right bet on what the striker will do or when), whether he likes important matches, body language, morale. Leadership? (how influential and respected it is and hence how much fear/respect he instills in opposition making him doubt more of his chances)
3 - Striker: Finishing (direct attribute), composure (keep calm on the important moment), decision (to pick the most likely to be successful shot), first touch (if he's receiving a pass not to let it get off to the keeper before the one on one can happen), dribbling (if he goes around goalkeeper), agility and balance (to change direction and vary shot angle), anticipation (to figure what will be goalkeeper's movement), determination (I gotta score this), technique (to have more ways in which to beat the keeper), concentration? (to not mess up being half asleep), how much he likes important games, body language, morale. Goals already scored during the match?. Leadership? (see above).
Give or take some attributes, hidden or otherwise. Within a maximum and minimum probabilities, <100% and >0% respectively, each circumstance could modify those limits, then each point in some attributes would modify weight of other attributes and then those would be weight, those for goalkeeper would take down probability, those in striker augment it, until a range could be determined from minimum (left post/crossbar) to a maximum (right post/crossbar) and the roll determines if the ball goes in, off or is saved. If saved, then there'd be a strength of shot (where striker's strength and foot used would be taken into account) versus handling and tendency to punch (strength too?) to decide if goalkeeper holds it, punches it away, tips it or blocks.
More or less that's how I'd figure it out.