These are dark, dark times in the football industry. It is not just the growing familiarity of matches being played in empty stadiums. It is the financial crisis that looms ever nearer with the news that the phased return of fans has been abandoned as Britain braces itself for the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.
For six months, clubs at every level have expressed concerns about the threat they face in a world without fans bringing money through the turnstiles. Andrea Agnelli, the Juventus chairman, warned recently that revenues among European clubs could drop by €4 billion over a two-year period. The Premier League said in a statement on Friday that English football is losing more than £100 million a month. The biggest, most powerful clubs are braced for a rough, turbulent ride.
Beyond the elite, the fears are much starker.
Against that alarming backdrop, amid silence from the stands, two debates rage simultaneously.
The first is about how, for example, Chelsea can spend £200 million on new signings while other clubs are fighting for their existence or how Tottenham Hotspur can spend around £240,000 a week to take Gareth Bale on loan after borrowing £175 million from the Bank of England or how Arsenal can celebrate Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang’s new £250,000-a-week contract so soon after making 55 employees redundant.
Set against this debate is another one, far more trivial, about how, while some of their rivals are carrying on as normal, Manchester United can start the season with only one new signing, Donny van de Beek, and with Ed Woodward, their executive vice-chairman, warning of the need to “be responsible in our use of resources during this most extraordinarily challenging time for everyone in football”.
That is undeniably true. If ever there was a time for purse strings to be tightened, surely this is it, ethically as well as from a business viewpoint. If Premier League clubs had shown a collective willingness to pull together and do more to help those clubs further down the pyramid, rather than shrugging their shoulders and carrying on as normal, we might be able to look to the future without a sense of trepidation.
But they haven’t done that. And there was something Woodward said on Saturday, in an open letter to the club’s supporters, that really grated. Having touched upon the economic pressures being felt by every football club, he said that “while we are fortunate to be in a more resilient position than most clubs, we are not immune from impact”.
Maybe this is just semantics, but that word “fortunate” doesn’t sit comfortably. There is nothing fortunate about United’s status as one of the biggest, most powerful clubs in world sport. Their success story goes back decades.
There is, however, something distinctly unfortunate about being owned by a regime that has cost the club far more than any pandemic ever will.
The Athletic revealed in May that over a 15-year period United have paid around £1.5 billion in interest payments, bond buybacks, management fees, dividends and all the other costs that come with the dubious privilege of being owned by the Glazer family.
If we are talking about resilience, then United’s has been tested to a degree that few other clubs in world football could have withstood. The common counter-argument here is that they have continued to spend money in the transfer market under the Glazers — just over £1 billion of it (much of it terribly) since Sir Alex Ferguson retired in 2013 and Woodward replaced him as the most influential figure at the club. But it is an argument that misses the point. Every pound United have spent is a pound United have generated. So too is every pound among the £1.5 billion that has been used to prop up the Glazers’ ownership.
That is why it is possible to feel, on one hand, a growing concern about the way other clubs are carrying on regardless — spending like there is no tomorrow, which in some cases there really might not be if fans are now allowed back into stadiums soon — and, on the other hand, a certain sympathy for those United supporters who are growing increasingly fretful at the lack of progress in the transfer market.
Since football resumed in June, United have played six home matches and missed out on two more (against FC Copenhagen and Sevilla in the Europa League). The loss of match-day revenue from those eight matches is estimated at upwards of £35 million. That is a considerable dent in any business plan, but next to the cost of the Glazers’ ownership, year after year after year, it is a drop in the ocean.
United have not abandoned the idea of further reinforcements in addition to Van de Beek. Far from it. But it is clear that the effects of the pandemic have undermined their pursuit of Jadon Sancho. They felt at the start of the summer that the challenging financial climate might force Borussia Dortmund to sell the England winger for significantly less than their €120 million valuation, but the Bundesliga club have so far stood firm in their refusal to drop the asking price, leaving United to weigh up whether to pay the price, park their interest until January or move on to Plan B, whatever or whoever (Ivan Perisic? Douglas Costa? Ismaila Sarr?) that might involve.
It certainly feels a long time since Ole Gunnar Solskjaer warmed to the suggestion that United, as “one of the biggest clubs, financially well off”, might be in a position to “exploit” a difficult climate in the transfer market this summer. Perhaps the £40 million deal to take Van de Beek from Ajax could be put in that category, but otherwise it has looked as if Chelsea, Manchester City, Liverpool and even Everton and Tottenham Hotspur have been better placed to “exploit” the market.
The message from Old Trafford, both before and since they opened their Premier League campaign on Saturday with a dismal 3-1 home defeat by Crystal Palace, is that United remain confident of strengthening the squad before the transfer window closes on October 5. They still hope to sign a new left-back and, ideally, another forward, but they feel that fans and media alike should trust the process and be more appreciative of the difficulties involved.
Fair enough. But why, year after year, do so many other clubs make it look so much easier? And can United’s supporters really trust the process? Internally the club believe they are now in a far stronger, more united position, having developed a more collegiate decision-making process since Solskjaer took over from the more divisive figure of Jose Mourinho, but it is not always easy to share their confidence in a process that led them last summer to spend, for example, £80 million on Harry Maguire, who has been solid for the most part but far from transformative. Van de Beek is a highly talented player, but should another creative midfielder, on top of Paul Pogba and Bruno Fernandes, really have been a top priority this summer? Time will tell.
Then there is the ongoing issue of squad management. It is one thing to cite a surplus of defenders to explain the difficulty of signing a new one, but Phil Jones, Chris Smalling and Marcos Rojo all signed new long-term contracts, to varying degrees of bewilderment, between March 2018 and February 2019. Jones played 135 minutes of Premier League football last season. He is 19 months into a four-and-a-half-year deal. And how on earth have United ended up in a position where they have three high-class goalkeepers (David de Gea, Sergio Romero and Dean Henderson) competing for one place but so little strength in depth in so many other positions?
It cannot be easy to move on Jones, Smalling or Rojo, or Diogo Dalot or Jesse Lingard, when they are on far bigger contracts than they would be elsewhere, but, quite apart from the wisdom of handing out those deals in the first place, there are questions to be asked about United’s ability to play the market.
Patrice Evra’s withering criticism of Woodward and Matt Judge, the club’s transfer negotiator, contained some familiar lines. Other clubs are proactive, decisive and adept when it comes to offloading unwanted players. United, for all their relief at finally having paid off Alexis Sanchez, appear far less so, which clearly doesn’t help when it comes to the difficulty of bringing players in.
It all takes us back to the familiar question of whether United need a director of football — surely they do — or, to frame that question slightly differently, whether they have the right structure and expertise when it comes to establishing and implementing a long-term philosophy. There is certainly a more unified vision now than there was under previous managers, or indeed in the hopelessly naive early years of Woodward’s leadership, but it involves putting an awful lot of faith in Woodward’s knowledge and leadership, the scouting team’s ability to identify top-class talent, Judge’s ability to strike deals and, not least, Solskjaer’s ability to get the best out of the players at his disposal. From the outside, all of those things still seem very much open to question.