I think right now form and morale are most powerful ME breaker... actually I won 4 matches on 4 using your counter tactic, just virtually not creating (or conceding) any scoring chances... same way I've won 3 consecutive championship using 3 different tactics (including one created by ME, and I'm useless with tactics since FM12)
I'm finding easy to win recently (regardless of tactic), easy to score goals (with attacking and high pressing style), just impossible to get consistent chances for strikers who tend to have 15-20 goals at best in a 45-50 games season - same as midfielders/wingers - and only score after drill crosses or fumbles in the box, not really well built chances. I'm sure I'm failing to understand something about ME, but I'm not enjoying it very much despite team success.