The analogy I used earlier in the thread was a baord full of light-switches... imagine one now, 10 rows of 5 switches that together light up 50 lights.
If you switch on only the first, third and fifth of each row the room would be lit-up enough without the need for the remaining twenty lights. If you only switch on the first two of each row the other side of the room would be in darkness, only the middle and both sides of the room would be dark whilst the middle of the room would be lit.
Then lets say that the top 5 rows are 'positive' and the bottom 5 rows are 'negative'.
You want to switch on the top 5 rows and not the bottom rows to get a positive result, whereas the opposition will be trying to switch on the bottom rows and not the top ones.
What you have to do is make sure that more of the top switches are on than those at the bottom to get the result you want. These switches can relate to anything, training happiness, morale, form, team-talk, press, team-mates (my Sampdoria team plays ***** without Cassano but ok when he's in the side even if he himself is playing ****!) and so on.
There can be many reasons for why a team underperforms and it's your job as manager to discover what they are to limit the times your team plays **** (like the Cassano example).
The analogy of the 50 switches, some being on and some off doesn’t quite work, but can be modified to illustrate my point. With switches, you have either an on or off condition, but factors such as morale, tactics, quality of player etc, are not just on or off.
For example, morale will vary from poor to superb and does so on a sliding scale. So instead of switches, let’s imagine 50 sliders (variable resistances or pots in an electrical circuit). If all of the sliders are at maximum, we have maximum overall resistance value. Conversely, if all are set to minimum, we have minimum resistance value.
Maximum value represents best chance to win a match, minimum value means the opposite.
Your aim is to get as many sliders to max as possible and in reality you can never really achieve this, but you aim to have a higher value than your opponent.
Taking the electrical analogy a little further, if you arrange all these sliders in series, you simply total up the value of all resistances to give you an overall total. In this situation you can give different sliders different values/ranges of resistance (to allow for different weighting of all of the variable factors that can affect a match) and it won’t matter if some go down to zero resistance, it would just mean that that slider would have no positive effect on your total.
More likely, you would arrange them in parallel, but give them all a limited range of resistance. If any could go down to zero, your overall resistance would also be zero as electrical current will always take the easiest path. For this reason you give them all limited range and again vary each slider’s range to allow for how much weighting it ought to have.
Whichever of the above (and it’s possible to use a combination of the two) the idea is still to get as many sliders to maximum as possible.
My contention is that if you have best morale, best players, best training, best staff, best tactics, best team talks and so on, you will always have a higher rating than your opponent. Best is an absolute, you can’t have two teams that are best.
In this situation, theoretically you couldn’t lose. The software does some obvious things to help change this, at least a little. The inferior team may have a good record of achieving results against superior opposition (they raise their game). The opposition plays well against certain formations (maybe your most favoured one). Your own highly paid prima-donnas struggle to get excited about playing weaker teams and complacency reduces their effectiveness.
The above and maybe more modifiers exist to reduce the chances of the better team always winning, but still don’t go far enough to explain some of the unexpected/shock results that occur, because these modifiers if they are consistent, would not have enough impact to turn around all the other positive modifiers in your favour against sufficiently weaker opposition.
So how do you introduce some unexpected/shock results, which like in real life, have to happen to introduce reality? One poster (rephlex) used the phrase “UNDERDOG MODIFIER,” which I think is a perfect way to label what I have attempted to describe throughout this thread.
What you do is put in another slider, controlled by the software, and let’s call it an “UNDERDOG SLIDER,” which has a variable resistance from 0-infinity OHMs. This slider is arranged in parallel to the other 50 sliders and it doesn’t matter how they are arranged, we will agree that they provide an overall value of resistance according to how well we’ve managed to get our sliders maxed out.
The “UNDERDOG SLIDER” can have anything from no effect when set to maximum (or infinity/open circuit) to total effect when set to minimum (zero OHMs/closed or short circuited). If this, or something like it is in play within the software, we can see that the “UNDERDOG MODIFIER” could be set to have no effect, in which case we are more or less in control of our own success or failure in any given match. Conversely, it could be set to have total effect, in which all of our positive modifiers would be zeroed out and we’d be certain to lose, whatever we did.
In practice the software would never be allowed to totally ensure that the weaker team was guaranteed to win (or so all of my practical tests have so far proven), but the “UNDERDOG SLIDER” is also a sliding scale and could be set to have such a significant effect on any given match, that you would only have maybe a 1-5% chance of winning it whatever you did and however maxed out all your sliders were.
This may not exactly describe what the software designers have done, but believe me and all other posters who have experienced the evidence of the effects of something similar over the many years of playing this game, the programmers have definitely put in some kind of mechanism to heavily weigh certain matches against you, matches that you would normally expect to win easily.
I hope this helps the doubters to understand that sometimes they can do everything right and still lose. It’s not always your fault if you lose!
oggmeista
As for matches played between human opponents, I have insufficient evidence to prove one way or the other, as I said in an earlier post the only 2 player games I play are over a network with my son and we don't allow replays in head to head matches. As I also said, I would prefer no replays at all, but he won't play if we don't agree a limited number of replays and I do like to play multiplayer.
We do sometimes get some strange results in head to head games and there is at least a suggestion of software interference, but I hope not as I believe that especially against a human opponent it should be a true contest between minds. If other matches are tweaked by the software in a multiplayer game, hopefully it would even out over the season.
Zidave
Your experience, and particularly the way the green bars on the match prep screen plummeted from fluid to awkward, adds further weight to my argument. I assume that you kept the same basic tactic (or up to the three allowed in the match prep screen) and selected players who had been training with this tactic. If so, the drop from fluid to awkward looks very suspicious.
Either way, your experiences also bear out the argument being made here.
Lazaru5
Hey, it's not so bad accepting that we don't control everything in our lives, otherwise all "accidents" would be our fault and never the other person, or even some failed component couldn't be blamed if it had to be our fault always.
Some things you can't control......sometimes "COMPUTER SAYS NO!!!"